{
 "about": "Signals: announcements, commitments, gatherings and findings that show which way heat policy and practice are moving in South and Southeast Asia. A commitment climbs a ladder (announced, adopted, funded, delivered, evaluated) and each move is dated in its history; an announcement is a weak signal, and each rung is stronger evidence that change is real. Every signal reuses a source the site has already checked, or passed its own check (research/2026-11/signals-cop31/). The ladder records how far each signal has got, never how well an institution performs. Checked by build-data.js --check.",
 "ladder": [
  { "id": "announced", "label": "Announced", "means": "Said in public. A weak signal on its own: announcements happen whether or not anything follows." },
  { "id": "adopted", "label": "Adopted", "means": "Made formal: a plan approved, a rule changed, an office set up." },
  { "id": "funded", "label": "Funded", "means": "Money committed to it, whether or not the amount is public." },
  { "id": "delivered", "label": "Delivered", "means": "Something exists that people can use: a service open, a guide published, money paid out." },
  { "id": "evaluated", "label": "Evaluated", "means": "Its results were measured and published." }
 ],
 "kinds": [
  { "id": "commitment", "label": "Commitment", "means": "Something an institution has promised or started; it climbs the ladder." },
  { "id": "gathering", "label": "Gathering", "means": "A conference or forum where the field meets; what it produces may become commitments." },
  { "id": "finding", "label": "Finding", "means": "New science that changes how heat is understood." },
  { "id": "guidance", "label": "Guidance", "means": "A framework or guide published for others to use." }
 ],
 "groups": [
  { "id": "cop31", "label": "COP31 watch", "when": "Antalya, 9 to 20 November 2026", "intro": "What we are watching for heat at COP31. Each item is added only after its source passes the site's check, on the rung it has truly reached; almost everything at a conference starts as an announcement.", "watching": ["Adaptation indicators", "Health", "Adaptation finance", "Cooling", "Early warnings"] },
  { "id": "year", "label": "Signals of the year", "intro": "This year's signals already on Common Shade, each with the source the site checked." }
 ],
 "signals": [
  {
   "id": "sig-cop31-2026", "group": "cop31", "kind": "gathering", "date": "2026-11-09",
   "title": "COP31 opens in Antalya",
   "summary": "COP31, the UN climate conference, is held in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026.",
   "who": "UNFCCC", "places": ["region"], "levers": ["hap", "heatbudget", "anticipatory"],
   "next": "Watch for heat in its outcomes on adaptation, health, finance, cooling and early warnings; each enters this page on the rung it has truly reached.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "UNFCCC: UN Climate Change Conference, Antalya, November 2026", "url": "https://unfccc.int/cop31" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-wmo-state-of-climate-2026", "group": "cop31", "kind": "finding", "date": "2026-11-09",
   "title": "2026 will be one of the four warmest years on record",
   "summary": "WMO's State of the Climate Update 2026, released as COP31 opened, finds that the past 12 years have each been the warmest on record and the past four the top four. The global average surface temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial average. In early November the EU's Copernicus service said 2026 is most likely to be the second-hottest year on record.",
   "who": "World Meteorological Organization", "places": ["region"], "levers": ["hap", "anticipatory"],
   "next": "A finding, not a commitment: watch whether heat plans and budgets are sized for the heat these years now bring, not the heat people remember.",
   "sources": [
    { "label": "WMO, 2026: State of the climate in 2026 gives new meaning to phrase 'off the charts'", "url": "https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/state-of-climate-2026-gives-new-meaning-phrase-charts" },
    { "label": "WMO: State of the Climate Update for COP31", "url": "https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/state-of-climate-update-cop/state-of-climate-update-cop31" },
    { "label": "AFP via The Korea Times, 2026: 2026 most likely to be second-hottest year on record", "url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20261106/2026-most-likely-to-be-second-hottest-year-on-record-eu-monitor" }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-el-nino-2026-2027", "group": "cop31", "kind": "finding", "date": "2026-11-09",
   "title": "El Niño set to bring more heat into 2027",
   "summary": "By mid-August 2026 El Niño had become firmly established. WMO reports it has been intensifying since August and is expected to be the strongest on record by December, set to unleash even more heat and extreme weather well into 2027.",
   "who": "World Meteorological Organization", "places": ["region"], "levers": ["anticipatory", "hap"],
   "next": "Early warnings and heat plans ready for the 2027 hot season, above all in Southeast Asia, where El Niño and warming broke records in April 2016.",
   "sources": [
    { "label": "WMO, 2026: State of the climate in 2026 gives new meaning to phrase 'off the charts'", "url": "https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/state-of-climate-2026-gives-new-meaning-phrase-charts" },
    { "label": "WMO: El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026", "url": "https://wmo.int/node/38928" }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-emissions-gap-2026", "group": "cop31", "kind": "finding", "date": "2026",
   "title": "Warming will overshoot 1.5 °C: the Emissions Gap Report 2026",
   "summary": "UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026, The Point of Return, finds that with global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5 °C, urgent and stringent cuts are needed to minimise the size and length of the overshoot and return to 1.5 °C by the end of the century. If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8 °C this century; if all national pledges are delivered, 2.6 °C.",
   "who": "UNEP, with PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency", "places": ["region"], "levers": ["hap", "heatbudget"],
   "next": "A finding, not a commitment: watch whether adaptation plans for heat assume the warming these projections describe.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026", "url": "https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/unep-emissions-gap-report-2026" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-belem-adaptation-indicators-2025", "group": "cop31", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2025",
   "title": "59 Belém Adaptation Indicators to measure progress on adaptation",
   "summary": "At the 2025 UN climate conference (CMA 7), countries adopted a set of 59 Belém Adaptation Indicators to measure progress towards the targets for adaptation; reporting on them will serve as an input to the global stocktake.",
   "who": "Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 7)", "places": ["region"], "levers": ["hap", "countdeaths"],
   "stage": "adopted", "history": [{ "date": "2025", "stage": "adopted", "note": "Adopted at CMA 7, under the Global Goal on Adaptation" }],
   "next": "Delivered: countries in South and Southeast Asia reporting on the indicators, including those that touch heat and health.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "UNFCCC: Global Goal on Adaptation", "url": "https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/gga" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-india-heatwave-calamity-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2026-08",
   "title": "India adds heatwaves to its notified natural calamities",
   "summary": "In August 2026 India added heatwaves to its notified natural calamities, so national and state disaster response funds can pay for heatwave relief. Before, states could spend only up to 10% of their response fund on locally declared disasters such as heat. Heat mitigation projects are funded separately, from disaster mitigation funds.",
   "who": "Government of India", "places": ["india"], "levers": ["heatbudget", "anticipatory"],
   "stage": "adopted", "history": [{ "date": "2026-08", "stage": "adopted", "note": "A rule change, reported from a reply in India's Lok Sabha" }],
   "next": "Funded and delivered: heatwave relief paid from a state or national response fund, and reported.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "Down To Earth, 2026: India updates disaster list to include heatwaves and lightning", "url": "https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/india-updates-disaster-list-to-include-heatwaves-and-lightning-after-finance-commission-push" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-global-heat-forum-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "gathering", "date": "2026-10-06",
   "title": "The first Global Heat Forum, in Bangkok",
   "summary": "Nearly 600 scientists, business leaders, philanthropists and health experts met in Bangkok from 6 to 9 October 2026. The Forum released the first country-level heat and health assessments for Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal, and a roadmap for investment and action on extreme heat.",
   "who": "Global Heat Forum", "places": ["thailand", "region"], "levers": ["hap", "anticipatory"],
   "next": "Watch for the roadmap's investments to become funded commitments.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "ClimateWorks Foundation, 2026: Global Heat Forum gathers 600 leaders", "url": "https://www.climateworks.org/press-release/global-heat-forum-gathers-600-leaders-to-scale-investment-for-extreme-heat-action/" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-narayanganj-hap", "group": "year", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2025-09-22",
   "title": "Bangladesh's first urban heatwave action plan, for Narayanganj",
   "summary": "Narayanganj City Corporation's heat action plan was approved on 22 September 2025 and published in 2026. It gives each short-term action a tentative cost in taka and names potential funding sources, often development partners and NGOs.",
   "who": "Narayanganj City Corporation", "places": ["bangladesh"], "levers": ["hap", "coolingcentres"],
   "stage": "adopted", "history": [{ "date": "2025-09-22", "stage": "adopted", "note": "Approved by the city corporation" }],
   "next": "Funded: budget lines for its actions, from the city or its partners.",
   "sources": [
    { "label": "Narayanganj City Corporation: Heat Action Plan, 2025", "url": "https://southasia.iclei.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Heat-Action-Plan_Narayanganj_Final_9th-Sept_2025_compressed.pdf" },
    { "label": "Prothom Alo, 2026: Bangladesh's first urban heatwave action plan", "url": "https://en.prothomalo.com/environment/climate-change/qq8g2g85o8" }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-bangladesh-hnap-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2026-03-31",
   "title": "Bangladesh adopts its Health National Adaptation Plan",
   "summary": "Bangladesh adopted its Health National Adaptation Plan 2026. It estimates about US$1.4 billion is needed over five years, and plans to draw on public budgets through a climate fiscal framework and on international climate funds such as the Adaptation Fund and the GCF.",
   "who": "Government of Bangladesh", "places": ["bangladesh"], "levers": ["readyclinics", "heatbudget"],
   "stage": "adopted", "history": [{ "date": "2026-03-31", "stage": "adopted", "note": "Launched and adopted" }],
   "next": "Funded: money committed against its five-year costing.",
   "sources": [
    { "label": "UNFPA Bangladesh, 2026: adoption of the Health National Adaptation Plan", "url": "https://bangladesh.un.org/en/313192-unfpa-welcomes-bangladesh%E2%80%99s-adoption-health-national-adaptation-plan-safeguard-health" },
    { "label": "Government of Bangladesh: Health National Adaptation Plan 2026", "url": "https://objectstorage.ap-dcc-gazipur-1.oraclecloud15.com/n/axvjbnqprylg/b/V2Ministry/o/office-iedcr/2026/2/9ef9325c-4d07-45ce-9159-94a51b2fce43.pdf" }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-bangkok-heat-plan-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2026",
   "title": "Bangkok's heat plan opens 304 cooling centres",
   "summary": "For the 2026 hot season Bangkok opened 304 cooling centres in schools, health centres and district offices. The city's own Urban Heat Management Action Plan for 2026 has 22 indicators, and a 2026 financing strategy with UNDP costs it at about THB 146 million to set up and THB 10.8 million a year to run, noting that running costs are not always covered.",
   "who": "Bangkok Metropolitan Administration", "places": ["thailand"], "levers": ["coolingcentres", "hap", "heatbudget"],
   "stage": "delivered", "history": [{ "date": "2026", "stage": "adopted", "note": "The city's Urban Heat Management Action Plan for 2026" }, { "date": "2026", "stage": "delivered", "note": "304 cooling centres open for the hot season" }],
   "next": "Evaluated: who used the cooling centres, and with what result.",
   "sources": [
    { "label": "Government of Thailand, 2026: Bangkok launches 304 cooling centers", "url": "https://thailand.go.th/issue-focus-detail/bangkok-launches-304-cooling-centers-to-combat-extreme-heat" },
    { "label": "UNDP and Bangkok Metropolitan Administration: Bangkok's financing strategy for tackling urban heat, 2026", "url": "https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2026-10/en-undp-bma_financial_strategy_on_urban_heat.pdf" }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-singapore-heat-office-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2026-03",
   "title": "Singapore sets up a Heat Resilience Policy Office and funds heat research",
   "summary": "In March 2026 a Heat Resilience Policy Office was set up to coordinate action across agencies, oversee research and draft a heat resilience action plan. A S$40 million 'Adapting to Heat Impacts' funding initiative supports research on heat impacts and community heat resilience.",
   "who": "Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment, Singapore", "places": ["singapore"], "levers": ["hap"],
   "stage": "funded", "history": [{ "date": "2026-03", "stage": "adopted", "note": "The office is set up" }, { "date": "2026-03", "stage": "funded", "note": "S$40 million research initiative" }],
   "next": "Delivered: the heat resilience action plan the office is drafting.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment, Singapore: Committee of Supply 2026", "url": "https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/speech-by-sms-janil-puthucheary-committee-of-supply-2026/" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-south-asia-climate-health-desk-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2026-02-20",
   "title": "A South Asia climate-health desk and a heat research consortium",
   "summary": "Announced on 20 February 2026: The Rockefeller Foundation and Wellcome fund a South Asia Climate-Health Desk under the WHO-WMO Climate and Health Joint Programme, and a South Asia Scientific Research Consortium, through a Rockefeller grant to IISER Pune, to develop tailored heat-risk thresholds. Amounts were not disclosed.",
   "who": "The Rockefeller Foundation and Wellcome", "places": ["region"], "levers": ["hap", "anticipatory"],
   "stage": "funded", "history": [{ "date": "2026-02-20", "stage": "funded", "note": "Funding announced; amounts not disclosed" }],
   "next": "Delivered: tailored heat-risk thresholds published for use in warnings.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "WMO, 2026: new initiatives launched to address extreme heat in South Asia", "url": "https://wmo.int/media/news/new-initiatives-launched-address-extreme-heat-south-asia" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-sea-heat-health-hub-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "commitment", "date": "2026-10-08",
   "title": "Support for the Southeast Asia Heat Health Hub's next stage",
   "summary": "Announced on 8 October 2026: support for the next stage of the Global Heat Health Information Network's Southeast Asia Hub, including funding for heat-health work in Indonesia (Makassar and two more cities) and Thailand in 2027, and preparations for a second Southeast Asia Heat Health Forum. The amount was not disclosed.",
   "who": "Philanthropy Asia Alliance", "places": ["indonesia", "thailand"], "levers": ["hap", "readyclinics"],
   "stage": "funded", "history": [{ "date": "2026-10-08", "stage": "funded", "note": "Funding announced; amount not disclosed" }],
   "next": "Delivered: heat-health work under way in Indonesia and Thailand in 2027.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "Philanthropy Asia Alliance, via Eco-Business, 2026", "url": "https://www.eco-business.com/press-releases/philanthropy-asia-alliance-supports-southeast-asia-heat-health-hub-to-scale-coordinated-action-on-extreme-heat/" }]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-south-asia-pre-monsoon-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "finding", "date": "2026-05",
   "title": "April's pre-monsoon heatwave was made three times more likely",
   "summary": "Fifteen days of heat in late April 2026 pushed India's electricity demand to a record and brought farm drought to more than a million square kilometres. Scientists found climate change made it three times more likely, and that April heat like this now returns about every five years.",
   "who": "World Weather Attribution", "places": ["india", "region"], "levers": ["hap", "anticipatory"],
   "next": "A finding, not a commitment: watch whether plans are sized to heat that now returns about every five years.",
   "sources": [
    { "label": "World Weather Attribution, 2026", "url": "https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exposes-hundreds-of-millions-to-longer-and-deadlier-pre-monsoon-heat-in-south-asia/" },
    { "label": "Mongabay, 2026", "url": "https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2026/05/climate-change-triples-chance-of-deadly-2026-south-asia-pre-monsoon-heatwave-report/" }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "sig-niua-heat-resilient-cities-2026", "group": "year", "kind": "guidance", "date": "2026",
   "title": "India's Heat Resilient Cities Framework",
   "summary": "India's National Institute of Urban Affairs published a Heat Resilient Cities Framework: a yearly city intervention plan, and a long-term heat resilience perspective.",
   "who": "National Institute of Urban Affairs, Climate Centre for Cities", "places": ["india"], "levers": ["hap", "coolbydesign"],
   "next": "Watch for cities that adopt it in their own plans.",
   "sources": [{ "label": "National Institute of Urban Affairs, 2026: Heat Resilient Cities Framework", "url": "https://niua.in/publication-details/Heat_Resilient_Cities_Framework" }]
  }
 ]
}