The heat economy · Ideas
Ideas for businesses and services,
cycle by cycle.
32 ideas for new businesses and services, one or more for each of the 21 vicious cycles on the map. Each says who could pay, who it helps and what needs to be in place. They are ideas to explore and test, not proven models.
About this section. We gathered this from public websites and reports in October 2026. Being listed does not mean we recommend, partner with or rank anyone, and none of it is financial advice. Companies describe their own products; we have not tested them, so please check details with them directly. If something is missing or out of date, tell us.
What they have in common. The strongest ideas sell protection that is looked after over time, not just a product. 6 could be paid for by customers. 25 need public or shared funding to reach the people who need them most, and many of those could still be run by local businesses, co-operatives or community groups on contract.
Loops that feed the heat itself
The global cooling loop
Cooling powered by fossil fuels adds to the warming that makes us need more cooling.
Co-operatives of trained cooling techniciansLocal technicians team up to install and service air conditioners properly, so they use less power and leak less gas.
Who could pay
Building owners and businesses pay for servicing; training grants help smaller technicians join.
Who it helps
Occupants and cooling users
Who would need to be on board
- Hospital and school estate managers
- Building-owner associations
- Public purchasing agencies
Similar work so far
EESL building energy ESCO partnerships 2021 (opens in a new tab) · Impact Fund Denmark Smart Joules climate finance (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Impact Fund Denmark (formerly IFU) · TechEmerge Sustainable Cooling Innovation Programme
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Qualified technicians and compatible parts exist.
- Equipment-specific safety, efficiency and refrigerant practices are checked.
- Contracts pay for preventive work, not only breakdowns.
Risks to watch
Poor servicing, unsafe refrigerant substitution and rebound can increase energy or injury risk; avoid locking customers into proprietary parts or unaffordable renewals.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Shared collection of old cooling gasesSmall contractors share a service that collects, stores and safely disposes of old cooling gases.
Who could pay
Contractors, equipment makers and owners pay per collection.
Who it helps
Workers, equipment users and the wider public
Who would need to be on board
- Equipment-owner associations
- Licensed recovery/reclamation operators
- Producer-responsibility bodies where established
Similar work so far
A-Gas Singapore lifecycle refrigerant management (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
ClimateWorks Foundation / Clean Cooling Collaborative · Keep Cool Innovation Challenge
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Licensed chain of custody and an accredited processing outlet are available.
- Small contractors can pool collections without mixing incompatible gases.
- Public enforcement or producer funding makes safe disposal competitive.
Risks to watch
Venting, false recovery records, unsafe transport, contamination and unlicensed destruction; reclaimed high-GWP stock would ideally avoid prolonging avoidable inefficient equipment use.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The dry-soil loop
Heat dries the soil. Dry soil can’t cool itself, so the land heats up faster.
Soil-cover services for farmers’ groupsGroups help farmers keep soil covered and moist, so land stays cooler and crops cope better.
Who could pay
Farmers and crop buyers contribute; public farm budgets help include smaller farmers.
Who it helps
Smallholders, agricultural workers and neighbouring land users
Who would need to be on board
- Farmer organisations and extension agencies
- Agricultural buyers
- Local water/landscape authorities
Similar work so far
FAO soil organic cover guidance (opens in a new tab) · IWMI SoLAR (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation · Powering Livelihoods
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Residues are available without removing essential fodder or fuel.
- Cover crops do not worsen dry-season water competition.
- Local soil moisture and crop response can be monitored.
Risks to watch
Biomass diversion, pests, fire load, plastic waste, added women’s unpaid work and water competition; no uniform crop-yield or air-cooling promise.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The melting-ice loop
Heat melts ice. Darker ground and water absorb more sunlight, and the melting speeds up.
Glaciers need global action, not a local businessSlowing the melting-ice cycle depends on cutting emissions worldwide and on public research. Monitoring glacier risks for nearby communities is a separate public task.
Who could pay
Public budgets and international climate funds.
Who it helps
Mountain and downstream communities, including those unable to pay.
Who would need to be on board
- Public climate and mountain research agencies
- Regional intergovernmental bodies
- Downstream public water authorities
Similar work so far
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Collective emissions mitigation remains necessary.
- Adaptation monitoring is not misrepresented as restoring ice or albedo.
- Any technical intervention would require credible environmental and governance evidence before investment.
Risks to watch
Speculative geoengineering, misleading glacier-rescue credits, tourism displacement and diversion of adaptation money from community protection.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The wildfire loop
Heat dries forests into fuel. Fires release carbon and strip away the trees that cool the land.
Paid community fire-prevention teamsLocal teams are paid to clear fuel, watch for fires and prepare before the dry season, with community rights respected.
Who could pay
Governments, forest agencies and landholders, for a yearly fee.
Who it helps
Village residents, outdoor workers and downwind communities.
Who would need to be on board
- Village/community institutions
- Fire/disaster agencies
- Land managers and concessionaires
Similar work so far
Asian Agri Fire Free Village 2024–2025 (opens in a new tab) · NParks annual and sustainability report 2025–2026 (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Land and customary rights are recognised.
- Prevention activities and safe escalation are agreed with fire authorities.
- Payment does not punish villages for fires beyond their control.
Risks to watch
Pressure over land use, unsafe unpaid firefighting, under-reporting of incidents and tension between neighbours; fire has causes beyond heat.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Loops that break the systems we rely on
The cooling trap
Air conditioning heats the street, and a hotter city needs even more air conditioning.
Group buying to cool many small buildingsA city or agency bundles many schools, clinics or homes into one contract, starting with shade and design, so suppliers can offer better prices.
Who could pay
Public building budgets and building owners.
Who it helps
Occupants
Who would need to be on board
- City housing departments
- School and clinic estate buyers
- Resident/tenant organisations
Similar work so far
Mahila Housing Trust programme profile (opens in a new tab) · EESL building energy ESCO partnerships 2021 (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
ClimateWorks Foundation / Clean Cooling Collaborative · Keep Cool Innovation Challenge
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Tenure and roof permissions are resolved.
- Passive load reduction precedes correctly sized active cooling.
- Comparable occupied-condition measurements and defect remedies are specified.
Risks to watch
Unsafe roofs, glare, moisture/fire problems, overclaimed indoor cooling, landlord rent increases and repayments based on savings that do not exist for households without AC.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Cooling sold as a service, with safeguardsA provider owns, runs and maintains a building’s cooling and is paid for reliable comfort, within limits on power and water use.
Who could pay
Hospitals, offices and other organisations that can sign service contracts.
Who it helps
Workers, patients and students
Who would need to be on board
- Employer facility managers
- Hospital/school public purchasers
- Worker/user oversight groups
Similar work so far
Impact Fund Denmark Smart Joules climate finance (opens in a new tab) · TechEmerge cooling programmes (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Impact Fund Denmark (formerly IFU) · TechEmerge Sustainable Cooling Innovation Programme
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Baseline adjusts for weather, occupancy and operating hours.
- Heat rejection, electricity, water and refrigerant limits are contractual.
- Independent verification and payment-dispute rules are funded.
Risks to watch
Rewarding lower sensor readings while excluding vulnerable users, gaming baselines, excessive AC heat rejection, water use and unmanageable supplier liability.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The energy–water loop
Water systems need power and power plants need water. In a heatwave, each failure deepens the other.
Keeping clinics and water pumps poweredA contractor keeps backup power working for clinics and water supply through the hot season, and is paid for being ready.
Who could pay
Health and water departments.
Who it helps
Patients and communities, including unconnected or low-income residents.
Who would need to be on board
- Health-estate buyers
- Water utilities
- Municipal disaster and energy teams
Similar work so far
MIT/BRAC Bangladesh climate shelter (opens in a new tab) · NCDC current heat-health programme (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Green Climate Fund · ClimateWorks Foundation / Clean Cooling Collaborative
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Critical and flexible loads are mapped jointly.
- Backup sizing, safe storage, spare parts and public access are financed.
- Water abstraction and quality remain regulated.
Risks to watch
Battery failure or fire, flood exposure, fuel dependence, over-pumping, monopolistic service contracts and exclusion of settlements outside formal networks.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Easing pressure on the grid at peak timesBuildings agree to reduce non-essential cooling briefly at peak hours, for a payment. Essential services are never cut.
Who could pay
Electricity companies pay for the flexibility.
Who it helps
Grid users and protected critical services
Who would need to be on board
- Electricity utilities/regulators
- Commercial building collectors
- Critical-service public overseers
Similar work so far
EESL building energy ESCO partnerships 2021 (opens in a new tab) · Impact Fund Denmark Smart Joules climate finance (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Impact Fund Denmark (formerly IFU) · TechEmerge Sustainable Cooling Innovation Programme
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- A utility is authorised and willing to buy flexibility.
- Critical care, drinking water and unsafe indoor heat are excluded from curtailment.
- Dispatch and rebound are measured.
Risks to watch
Rebound peaks, heating occupied rooms, interrupting care/water, private data access and assuming a demand-response market exists in every jurisdiction.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The groundwater loop
Dry fields need more water, so farmers pump harder, aquifers fall and the shortage deepens.
Solar irrigation with fair water rulesA co-operative runs solar pumps within agreed water limits, so cheap power doesn’t drain groundwater.
Who could pay
Farmer co-operatives and utilities, with public water management.
Who it helps
Smallholders and shared aquifer users, including non-pump owners.
Who would need to be on board
- Farmer cooperatives
- Electricity distribution companies
- Groundwater authorities
Similar work so far
CGIAR/IWMI solar irrigation and groundwater (opens in a new tab) · IWMI SoLAR (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation · Powering Livelihoods
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Water rights/caps and third-party aquifer monitoring exist.
- Grid interconnection, tariffs and timely settlement are checked.
- Women, tenants and non-pump owners participate in allocation.
Risks to watch
Free marginal pumping energy can worsen depletion; elite capture, unaffordable connections, delayed utility payments and drought-driven over-abstraction.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The dying-green loop
Heat and drought kill city trees. Without their shade the streets get hotter, and hotter streets kill more trees.
Paying to keep trees alive, not just plantedCaretakers are paid over several years for trees that survive and give shade, not for the number planted.
Who could pay
Cities, market and transport managers, and landowners.
Who it helps
Market users, commuters, outdoor workers and nearby residents.
Who would need to be on board
- Municipal parks and public works
- Market/transport managers
- Resident groups with tenure protections
Similar work so far
NParks annual and sustainability report 2025–2026 (opens in a new tab) · Nature for Cooling programme (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Rooting space, species, water allocation and land permissions are appropriate.
- Tree survival, canopy development and safety are monitored separately.
- Local caretakers are paid and trained.
Risks to watch
Water competition, root/infrastructure conflicts, falling branches, species failure, unpaid care work and green displacement
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Inspecting and repairing shadeA service checks and fixes shade structures, trees and watering within an agreed water budget.
Who could pay
Cities and estate managers, from maintenance budgets.
Who it helps
People using hot neighbourhoods, especially those without private cooling.
Who would need to be on board
- City water and parks teams
- School/market estate owners
- Community maintenance cooperatives
Similar work so far
NParks annual and sustainability report 2025–2026 (opens in a new tab) · Nature for Cooling programme (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Basic water needs take priority.
- Reuse water meets health and soil requirements.
- Every alert has an authorised maintenance task and paid crew.
Risks to watch
Sensor dashboards without repair budgets, unsafe reclaimed water, pumping rebound, e-waste and irrigation prioritised over drinking water.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The overwhelmed-clinic loop
Heat illness floods clinics. Overwhelmed clinics treat people later, and more cases become severe.
Keeping clinic cooling and power workingA provider keeps a clinic’s cooling, power, water and medicine fridges running through the hot season.
Who could pay
Health departments.
Who it helps
Patients and staff
Who would need to be on board
- Health authorities and clinic estates
- Medical purchasing bodies
- Patient/community oversight
Similar work so far
NCDC current heat-health programme (opens in a new tab) · MIT/BRAC Bangladesh climate shelter (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Clinical authority defines critical functions and escalation.
- Power/water, passive load reduction and trained servicing are integrated.
- Purchasing includes parts, consumables, staff and end-of-life.
Risks to watch
Critical equipment failure, unsafe retrofit, refrigerant risks, exclusion of small rural clinics and contracts that finance hardware but omit staffing.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Getting clinics ready before summerA team prepares staff, supplies and referral plans before each hot season, and helps manage busy days.
Who could pay
Health departments.
Who it helps
Patients, frontline staff and communities beyond hospitals.
Who would need to be on board
- District health authorities
- Hospital networks
- Emergency transport/public health teams
Similar work so far
WHO heat-health action planning 2026 (opens in a new tab) · NCDC current heat-health programme (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Public clinical command and referral authority remain clear.
- Local warnings activate pre-authorised staff, supplies and transport.
- Audits verify action, not completed forms alone.
Risks to watch
Outsourcing accountability, unlicensed clinical advice, duplicated command structures, burdensome reporting and unpaid frontline labour.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Loops that trap people
The poverty–heat trap
People who can’t afford to stop working fall ill. Illness costs income, and lost income makes stopping even less affordable.
Paid rest, shade and water at workA service sets up shade, water and paid rest breaks for employers, and helps them follow heat rules.
Who could pay
Employers, who are responsible for their workers.
Who it helps
Formal and contracted workers
Who would need to be on board
- Employers and supply-chain buyers
- Worker organisations as co-designers
- Labour inspection bodies
Similar work so far
ILO heat and occupational safety policy brief 2024 (opens in a new tab) · Nicaraguan rest–shade–hydration–hygiene cohort study, published abstract (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Workers can stop safely without wage or job penalties.
- Worker voice and complaints are protected.
- Exposure, workload and rest practice are checked independently of production targets.
Risks to watch
Compliance theatre, worker surveillance, exclusion of subcontractors or women, unpaid rest and using wearables to justify higher quotas.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Worker-run support for lost incomeWorker organisations help run support that replaces income lost on dangerous days.
Who could pay
Public funds and pooled worker funds, with outside support.
Who it helps
Informal workers, especially those excluded from employment-based benefits.
Who would need to be on board
- Worker organisations as co-owners
- Social-protection agencies
- Municipal/employer pooled purchasers
Similar work so far
CGAP SEWA climate-health lessons (opens in a new tab) · Swiss Re SEWA parametric income protection India (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Worker representatives govern access and grievance rules.
- Pre-agreed assistance funds are available before alerts.
- Offline/ID/bank-account exclusions and payout delays have fallback routes.
Risks to watch
Wrong triggers, basis risk, unpaid enrolment labour, benefit capture, privacy and treating insurance proceeds as guaranteed wages.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The medical-debt trap
Treatment costs push families into debt. Debt removes any option to rest, and working through the heat brings more illness.
Free heat care, and help with claimsPeople get treatment for heat illness without paying upfront, and help to claim the benefits they are entitled to.
Who could pay
Public health insurance and care funds.
Who it helps
Low-income patients and carers, including migrants and informal workers.
Who would need to be on board
- Health authorities and care purchasers
- Public/contracted providers
- Worker/community organisations
Similar work so far
WHO heat-health action planning 2026 (opens in a new tab) · CGAP SEWA climate-health lessons (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- A checked cashless entitlement or pooled treatment budget exists.
- Providers accept agreed payment and do not balance-bill protected patients.
- Clinical triage and referrals stay with qualified health services.
Risks to watch
Unaffordable care hidden behind enrolment, denial of migrants, coercive medical debt, clinical-data sale and unlicensed treatment advice.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The energy-poverty trap
People who can’t afford to cool fall ill. Illness brings debt, and debt puts cooling even further out of reach.
Affordable, repairable fans, with power kept onEfficient fans supplied and repaired locally, and households not cut off in a heatwave.
Who could pay
Subsidies and utility programmes.
Who it helps
Low-income households and home-based workers
Who would need to be on board
- Housing/municipal cooling buyers
- Worker/home-based producer groups
- Repair cooperatives
Similar work so far
EESL building energy ESCO partnerships 2021 (opens in a new tab) · WRI Keep Cool Innovation Challenge (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Electrical supply/wiring and equipment safety are adequate.
- Fan use is assessed for actual heat/humidity, health and indoor conditions.
- Spare parts and a no-penalty support route are funded.
Risks to watch
Unsafe fan use in extreme conditions, outage failure, e-waste, repayment stress, proprietary parts and implying a universal safe temperature.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Shared cool roomsStaffed, accessible cool rooms open in neighbourhoods on the hottest days.
Who could pay
City budgets, including staff and running costs.
Who it helps
People without adequate home cooling, including older/disabled residents, carers and workers.
Who would need to be on board
- City/community facility buyers
- Schools and health estates
- Disabled/older people and worker groups
Similar work so far
MIT/BRAC Bangladesh climate shelter (opens in a new tab) · WHO heat-health action planning 2026 (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
ClimateWorks Foundation / Clean Cooling Collaborative · Keep Cool Innovation Challenge
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Location, hours and transport match real users including nights where justified.
- Staff, safeguarding, capacity and backup are financed.
- Eligibility is inclusive and emergency referral is arranged.
Risks to watch
Empty/inaccessible rooms, unsafe travel, overcrowding, gender/child safeguarding failures, cooling waste heat and unfunded electricity/maintenance.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The displacement loop
People forced to move often land in heat-trapping housing, fall ill, lose income, fall further behind, and are forced to move again.
Cooler shelters for displaced peopleReusable shelters made cooler, with support for residents’ rights.
Who could pay
Housing and humanitarian budgets.
Who it helps
Displaced families, renters and migrants with limited formal tenure.
Who would need to be on board
- Public/humanitarian shelter buyers
- Resident/migrant organisations
- Local housing and service authorities
Similar work so far
Mahila Housing Trust programme profile (opens in a new tab) · CODI Baan Mankong (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Fire/structural safety and shelter standards are independently checked.
- Upgrades do not legitimise unsafe permanent settlement or enable eviction.
- Water, energy, sanitation and secure access are included.
Risks to watch
Tenure loss, rent increases, unsafe/flammable materials, poor ventilation, asset seizure and debt imposed on people without reliable income.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The lost-schooling loop
Children pulled out of school earn less as adults, and poorer families pull more children out of school.
Cooler schools, so children stay in schoolGroups of schools are improved together, with water, shade and repairs funded, and free for pupils.
Who could pay
Education departments.
Who it helps
Children in under-resourced schools and carers
Who would need to be on board
- Education and school-estate authorities
- School management committees
- Parent/child and disability representatives
Similar work so far
Paris OASIS schoolyards (opens in a new tab) · MIT/BRAC Bangladesh climate shelter (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Education/social-protection agencies address income/care pressures as well as buildings.
- Safe closure rules remain available when conditions are unsafe.
- Learning and inclusion are monitored beyond temperature.
Risks to watch
Pressure to keep unsafe schools open, maintenance gaps, excluding disabled children, diverting teaching budgets and confusing cooler yards with proven lower dropout.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Learning that continues when schools closeOffline lessons and safe childcare ready for days when heat closes schools.
Who could pay
Education budgets.
Who it helps
Children without reliable internet/devices, including migrants and children with disabilities.
Who would need to be on board
- Education departments
- School committees and teachers
- Childcare/child-protection agencies
Similar work so far
UNICEF offline learning (opens in a new tab) · WHO heat-health action planning 2026 (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Teachers, accessible materials and safe learning locations are funded.
- Meal/care loss and unpaid household care are addressed.
- Return-to-school and dropout follow-up are built in.
Risks to watch
Digital exclusion, risks to children’s data, unsafe household heat, extra unpaid care and replacing teachers with software; no proven long-term earnings benefit.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The sleepless-nights loop
Hot nights wreck sleep. Poor sleep frays mental health, and stress makes sleep harder still.
Cooler nights for people at riskCooler homes, plus regular check-ins on older or isolated people during hot nights.
Who could pay
Housing and social-care budgets.
Who it helps
Older and disabled people, home-based workers and other residents with persistently hot bedrooms.
Who would need to be on board
- Public/social housing managers
- Social-care authorities
- Disabled/older people’s organisations
Similar work so far
Mahila Housing Trust programme profile (opens in a new tab) · WHO heat-health action planning 2026 (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Bedroom heat/humidity is assessed overnight.
- Night ventilation is used only when outdoor air, security, pollution and weather allow.
- Safeguarding, accessible fallback space and paid staff are in place.
Risks to watch
Unsafe open windows, gender-based safety concerns, surveillance, inaccessible refuges and assigning unpaid night care to women; no promised mental-health cure.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The green-displacement loop
Green space follows wealth. When greening reaches poorer districts without protection, rents rise, residents are pushed into hotter housing, and the gap grows.
Neighbourhood upgrades that let residents stayCooling upgrades such as trees and cooler roofs come with agreed protections for tenants and vendors.
Who could pay
Public and community-controlled upgrading funds.
Who it helps
Existing tenants, informal residents and low-income owners
Who would need to be on board
- Community/tenant organisations as co-owners
- City housing and land agencies
- Public-interest legal support
Similar work so far
CODI Baan Mankong (opens in a new tab) · Mahila Housing Trust programme profile (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Tenants and migrants are represented in decisions.
- Rent, eviction and land-use protections are legally reviewable and enforceable.
- Community budgets and grievances are transparent.
Risks to watch
Upgrade-linked eviction, higher rent/service charges, landlord capture, distant relocation and excluding people without documents; a contractor cannot guarantee rights without public legal authority.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The heat credit squeeze
Heat empties shops and small firms miss repayments. Banks tighten credit, so firms can’t afford to adapt, and the next heatwave hits harder.
Lenders acting early in a heatwaveLenders offer payment breaks and support to small businesses when heat hits, before loans go bad.
Who could pay
Lenders, from their own budgets.
Who it helps
Small businesses, informal traders and their workers
Who would need to be on board
- Regulated SME/microfinance lenders
- Trader/producer associations
- Public SME agencies
Similar work so far
Prosper Global Ventures Resilience AI pilot current URL (opens in a new tab) · CGAP SEWA climate-health lessons (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Regulated lenders authorise fair restructuring and transparent treatment.
- Risk data cannot become automatic denial or punitive pricing.
- Alerts connect to funded action and privacy-protecting support.
Risks to watch
Discriminatory scoring, data sale, coercive collections, debt extensions without affordability and excluding informal businesses without credit histories.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Heat-safe marketsMarket managers and traders share the cost of shade, water and cooling upkeep.
Who could pay
Cities and traders’ groups, on shared contracts.
Who it helps
Vendors, customers, loaders and informal traders
Who would need to be on board
- Municipal/market estate buyers
- Vendor organisations as co-owners
- Agricultural buyers and cold-chain operators
Similar work so far
Shell Foundation cooling dividend (opens in a new tab) · PIDG InspiraFarms cooling (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Trading/tenure rights and affordable fees are protected.
- Waste, sanitation, water, power and maintenance duties are explicit.
- Opening hours and access are co-designed with workers.
Risks to watch
Higher market rents/fees, displacement of street vendors, waste heat, unsafe water, spoilage from outages and capture of common facilities by larger traders.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The farm-debt loop
A failed harvest pushes farmers into debt. Debt leaves less for seed, water and fertiliser, so the next harvest fails more easily.
Protecting crops and farm workers from heatShade nets, mulch and safe working hours that protect both harvests and workers.
Who could pay
Crop buyers and co-operatives, with public support to include smaller farmers.
Who it helps
Smallholders, tenants, farm workers and livestock keepers.
Who would need to be on board
- Farmer cooperatives
- Agricultural buyers/processors
- Agriculture and water authorities
Similar work so far
FAO soil organic cover guidance (opens in a new tab) · Villgro CEEW Powering Livelihoods (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation · Powering Livelihoods
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Crop/species-specific trials support the selected measures.
- Buyers offer credible offtake and water rules prevent depletion.
- Workers retain paid rest and safe conditions.
Risks to watch
Shade reducing suitable crop light, pest/humidity shifts, water depletion, indebted farmers paying for failed measures and neglect of worker exposure.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Help to restart after a heat-hit harvestSupport arranged in advance, and insurance where suitable, so farmers can buy seed again without heavy debt.
Who could pay
Public assistance funds, with insurance for part of the risk.
Who it helps
Smallholders and tenant farmers unable to self-finance recovery.
Who would need to be on board
- Farmer/tenant organisations
- Agriculture/social-protection purchasers
- Licensed insurers and buyer pools
Similar work so far
CGAP SEWA climate-health lessons (opens in a new tab) · IWMI SoLAR (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Assistance and insured risks are distinguished.
- Locally credible triggers/appeals and tenancy inclusion exist.
- No compulsory borrowing or tied overpriced inputs.
Risks to watch
Basis risk, delayed funds, insurer withdrawal, unsuitable inputs, buyer dependency and debt rollover that deepens rather than breaks the trap.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Loops inside institutions
The invisible-deaths loop
Heat deaths go uncounted, so heat protection goes unfunded, so more people die uncounted.
Counting heat illness and heat at workPublic services that record heat illness and measure heat at workplaces, with open data.
Who could pay
Health, labour and research budgets.
Who it helps
Residents and workers whose exposures and health outcomes are poorly represented.
Who would need to be on board
- Public-health surveillance teams
- Labour authorities and worker organisations
- Public meteorological/statistical agencies
Similar work so far
NCDC current heat-health programme (opens in a new tab) · WHO heat-health action planning 2026 (opens in a new tab)
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Clinical attribution and excess-mortality analysis have competent public/statistical oversight.
- WBGT is measured/maintained correctly and not substituted with heat index or satellite surface temperature.
- Data triggers action and budgets through named authorities.
Risks to watch
Automatic heat-death attribution, coercive worker tracking, privacy breaches, commercial data monopolies, unmaintained sensors and counting without action; no promise that better counts automatically unlock budgets.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The reactive-spending loop
Stretched budgets skimp on prevention. Emergencies multiply, and costly emergency response stretches budgets further.
Help preparing heat projectsA service helps cities turn heat plans into costed projects that are ready for funding.
Who could pay
Technical-assistance funds and city budgets.
Who it helps
Residents and institutions needing protection, especially settings without user-fee revenue.
Who would need to be on board
- City finance/planning/public works
- School and health estates
- Community/worker representatives
Similar work so far
World Bank City Climate Finance Gap Fund (opens in a new tab) · Nature for Cooling programme (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Green Climate Fund · ClimateWorks Foundation / Clean Cooling Collaborative
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Projects distinguish cash-generating assets from public goods.
- Country/municipal approval and purchasing authority are confirmed.
- Lifecycle budgets, community consent and maintenance are included.
Risks to watch
Bankability replacing public need, consultant dependency, inflated pipeline claims, purchasing conflicts and unfunded operating budgets.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
Ready-to-go summer contractsContracts agreed in advance, so action starts as soon as a heatwave is forecast.
Who could pay
City and district budgets set aside each year.
Who it helps
Communities, frontline services and exposed workers.
Who would need to be on board
- City/disaster finance authorities
- Health and weather services
- Community/worker delivery partners
Similar work so far
WHO heat-health action planning 2026 (opens in a new tab) · NCDC current heat-health programme (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
Green Climate Fund · ClimateWorks Foundation / Clean Cooling Collaborative
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Warning, operational action and payment triggers are distinct and locally validated.
- Named officials can release money and operators can deliver offline.
- Post-season failure review and fallback actions are required.
Risks to watch
Forecast false positives/negatives, delayed authority, inaccessible alerts, diverted funds and readiness checklists without functioning services.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
The protection-gap loop
As insurers retreat, public budgets absorb the losses, protection is cut, and the risk drives insurers further away.
Shared risk pools, with prevention firstSeveral places pool money to cover severe heat years, alongside prevention and cash support.
Who could pay
Public funds and worker funds, with help to pay premiums.
Who it helps
Workers and vulnerable communities
Who would need to be on board
- Worker/community organisations as co-owners
- Public social-protection and finance authorities
- Licensed insurers/reinsurers
Similar work so far
CGAP SEWA climate-health lessons (opens in a new tab) · Swiss Re SEWA parametric income protection India (opens in a new tab)
Funders and programmes that could fit
More detail from the research: what needs to be in place, and risks
In the researchers’ own words, which are more technical.
What needs to be in place
- Insurance licensing, fiduciary governance and independent actuarial review are secured.
- Cash assistance has funded fallback for basis risk and non-trigger losses.
- Renewal, exclusions, claims arrival and insurer/public contingent liabilities are disclosed.
Risks to watch
Unfunded guarantees, correlated losses, unaffordable premiums, basis risk, moral hazard narratives that remove prevention, elite capture and a pool mistaken for free insurance capacity.
Before starting, see the questions to ask.
An idea to explore and test locally, not a proven model. See the cycle it helps break.
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