Lessons from Asia’s heatwaves, 1998–2026
Ten heatwaves across South and Southeast Asia: what they cost, what changed afterwards, and what they teach.
| When | Where | Peak | Recorded toll |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1998 | Odisha, India | Coastal Odisha, not known for extreme heat | 2,042 deaths from heatstroke recorded by hospitals |
| May–June 2003 | Andhra Pradesh, India | Weeks of heat across the state | 1,317 deaths in Andhra Pradesh in three weeks, as reported then |
| May 2010 | Ahmedabad, India | 46.8 °C | An estimated 1,344 excess deaths, 43% more than in the same weeks of 2009 and 2011 |
| May–June 2015 | India and Pakistan | 40–45 °C for weeks in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana | More than 2,500 deaths in India, mostly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and more than 1,100 in Pakistan, centred on Karachi |
| April 2016 | Thailand and mainland Southeast Asia | 44.6 °C at Mae Hong Son, Thailand’s highest ever at the time | No regional death count |
| March–April 2022 | India and Pakistan | 49 °C in Pakistan; India’s hottest March in 122 years | At least 90 deaths reported |
| April 2023 | Bangladesh, India, Laos and Thailand | 45.4 °C at Tak, Thailand’s highest ever | No regional death count |
| April 2024 | South and Southeast Asia | 48.2 °C at Chauk, Myanmar’s highest April temperature on record | At least 28 heat deaths reported in Bangladesh in April; likely an undercount |
| May–June 2024 | Northern India | Nearly 50 °C in parts of the north; Delhi’s hottest night in more than five decades | 110 heat deaths and more than 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases officially recorded from 1 March to 18 June |
| April 2026 | India and Pakistan | Above 46 °C in many cities | At least 37 heat deaths reported in India and 10 in Karachi; likely undercounted |
Four lessons
Plans save lives. After 2,042 recorded heatstroke deaths in 1998, Odisha wrote a heat plan, and recorded deaths fell to 91 the next year. Ahmedabad’s plan was later estimated to avoid 1,190 deaths a year.
Counts are a floor. In 2024 India recorded 110 heat deaths against more than 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases by mid-June. Ahmedabad’s 2010 toll was only found by counting excess deaths.
Heat arrives earlier, and wetter. In 2022 it came in March, before the wheat was ready. Humid heat that once came less than once a century in Bangladesh and India can now be expected about every five years.
Climate change raises the odds. Scientists found the 2022 heatwave about 30 times more likely because of climate change, a 30-day South Asian heatwave like April 2024’s about 45 times more likely, and April 2026’s heat about three times more likely.
Recorded deaths are a floor, not a total: many heat deaths are never counted as heat deaths. Where no solid count exists, the timeline says so.
Sources
- Down To Earth: how to fight heat wave the Odisha way. downtoearth.org.in/environment/how-to-fight-heat-wave-the-odisha-way-49950
- The Tribune, 8 June 2003. tribuneindia.com/2003/20030608/main6.htm
- Hess et al., Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6236972
- Encyclopaedia Britannica: India–Pakistan heat wave of 2015. britannica.com/print/article/2028529
- NASA Earth Observatory, 2016. earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=87981
- World Meteorological Organization, 2022: climate change made the heatwave 30 times more likely. public.wmo.int/node/14883
- World Weather Attribution, 2023. worldweatherattribution.org/?p=1870
- World Weather Attribution, reported by Down To Earth, 2024. downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/climate-change-responsible-for-over-80-of-temperature-rise-within-asia-last-month-the-hottest-april-ever-wwa-96153
- The Tribune (PTI), 2024: 110 deaths, 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases. tribuneindia.com/news/india/india-reports-110-deaths-40-000-heatstroke-cases-this-summer-632500/amp
- World Weather Attribution, 2026. worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exposes-hundreds-of-millions-to-longer-and-deadlier-pre-monsoon-heat-in-south-asia