News and evidence
Which way heat policy and practice are moving in South and Southeast Asia: announcements, commitments, gatherings and findings, and how far each has climbed from promise to proof.
The ladder
Of the 8 commitments tracked so far, 1 has been delivered and none has been evaluated. The furthest any has climbed is "Delivered".
A signal is a step, not a score. The ladder records how far each signal has got, never how well an institution performs, and it says nothing about places not shown. An announcement is a weak signal on its own; each rung is stronger evidence that change is real.
Commitment Something an institution has promised or started; it climbs the ladder.Gathering A conference or forum where the field meets; what it produces may become commitments.Finding New science that changes how heat is understood.Guidance A framework or guide published for others to use.
Antalya, 9 to 20 November 2026
What we are watching for heat at COP31. Each item is added only after its source passes the site's check, on the rung it has truly reached; almost everything at a conference starts as an announcement.
Watching for heat inAdaptation indicatorsHealthAdaptation financeCoolingEarly warnings
UNFCCC
COP31, the UN climate conference, is held in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026.
What to watchWatch for heat in its outcomes on adaptation, health, finance, cooling and early warnings; each enters this page on the rung it has truly reached.
World Meteorological Organization
WMO's State of the Climate Update 2026, released as COP31 opened, finds that the past 12 years have each been the warmest on record and the past four the top four. The global average surface temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial average. In early November the EU's Copernicus service said 2026 is most likely to be the second-hottest year on record.
What to watchA finding, not a commitment: watch whether heat plans and budgets are sized for the heat these years now bring, not the heat people remember.
World Meteorological Organization
By mid-August 2026 El Niño had become firmly established. WMO reports it has been intensifying since August and is expected to be the strongest on record by December, set to unleash even more heat and extreme weather well into 2027.
What to watchEarly warnings and heat plans ready for the 2027 hot season, above all in Southeast Asia, where El Niño and warming broke records in April 2016.
UNEP, with PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026, The Point of Return, finds that with global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5 °C, urgent and stringent cuts are needed to minimise the size and length of the overshoot and return to 1.5 °C by the end of the century. If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8 °C this century; if all national pledges are delivered, 2.6 °C.
What to watchA finding, not a commitment: watch whether adaptation plans for heat assume the warming these projections describe.
Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 7)
Adopted rung 2 of 5
At the 2025 UN climate conference (CMA 7), countries adopted a set of 59 Belém Adaptation Indicators to measure progress towards the targets for adaptation; reporting on them will serve as an input to the global stocktake.
What would move it upDelivered: countries in South and Southeast Asia reporting on the indicators, including those that touch heat and health.
Already on Common Shade
This year's signals already on Common Shade, each with the source the site checked.
Bangkok Metropolitan Administration
Delivered rung 4 of 5
For the 2026 hot season Bangkok opened 304 cooling centres in schools, health centres and district offices. The city's own Urban Heat Management Action Plan for 2026 has 22 indicators, and a 2026 financing strategy with UNDP costs it at about THB 146 million to set up and THB 10.8 million a year to run, noting that running costs are not always covered.
What would move it upEvaluated: who used the cooling centres, and with what result.
Philanthropy Asia Alliance
Funded rung 3 of 5
Announced on 8 October 2026: support for the next stage of the Global Heat Health Information Network's Southeast Asia Hub, including funding for heat-health work in Indonesia (Makassar and two more cities) and Thailand in 2027, and preparations for a second Southeast Asia Heat Health Forum. The amount was not disclosed.
What would move it upDelivered: heat-health work under way in Indonesia and Thailand in 2027.
Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment, Singapore
Funded rung 3 of 5
In March 2026 a Heat Resilience Policy Office was set up to coordinate action across agencies, oversee research and draft a heat resilience action plan. A S$40 million 'Adapting to Heat Impacts' funding initiative supports research on heat impacts and community heat resilience.
What would move it upDelivered: the heat resilience action plan the office is drafting.
The Rockefeller Foundation and Wellcome
Funded rung 3 of 5
Announced on 20 February 2026: The Rockefeller Foundation and Wellcome fund a South Asia Climate-Health Desk under the WHO-WMO Climate and Health Joint Programme, and a South Asia Scientific Research Consortium, through a Rockefeller grant to IISER Pune, to develop tailored heat-risk thresholds. Amounts were not disclosed.
What would move it upDelivered: tailored heat-risk thresholds published for use in warnings.
Government of India
Adopted rung 2 of 5
In August 2026 India added heatwaves to its notified natural calamities, so national and state disaster response funds can pay for heatwave relief. Before, states could spend only up to 10% of their response fund on locally declared disasters such as heat. Heat mitigation projects are funded separately, from disaster mitigation funds.
What would move it upFunded and delivered: heatwave relief paid from a state or national response fund, and reported.
Government of Bangladesh
Adopted rung 2 of 5
Bangladesh adopted its Health National Adaptation Plan 2026. It estimates about US$1.4 billion is needed over five years, and plans to draw on public budgets through a climate fiscal framework and on international climate funds such as the Adaptation Fund and the GCF.
What would move it upFunded: money committed against its five-year costing.
Narayanganj City Corporation
Adopted rung 2 of 5
Narayanganj City Corporation's heat action plan was approved on 22 September 2025 and published in 2026. It gives each short-term action a tentative cost in taka and names potential funding sources, often development partners and NGOs.
What would move it upFunded: budget lines for its actions, from the city or its partners.
Global Heat Forum
Nearly 600 scientists, business leaders, philanthropists and health experts met in Bangkok from 6 to 9 October 2026. The Forum released the first country-level heat and health assessments for Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal, and a roadmap for investment and action on extreme heat.
What to watchWatch for the roadmap's investments to become funded commitments.
World Weather Attribution
Fifteen days of heat in late April 2026 pushed India's electricity demand to a record and brought farm drought to more than a million square kilometres. Scientists found climate change made it three times more likely, and that April heat like this now returns about every five years.
What to watchA finding, not a commitment: watch whether plans are sized to heat that now returns about every five years.
National Institute of Urban Affairs, Climate Centre for Cities
India's National Institute of Urban Affairs published a Heat Resilient Cities Framework: a yearly city intervention plan, and a long-term heat resilience perspective.
What to watchWatch for cities that adopt it in their own plans.
Know of a signal we have missed, or one that has moved? Tell us, with its source. See also State of the field, Heat in the news and Watch Common Shade grow.
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